Tropical Updates

TPG

Tropical Storm Nicholas Update September 14, 2021 at 4PM CT

Click HERE for an update concerning Tropical Strom Nicholas.

Changes from previous update: 

  • Areas of the highest rainfall has shifted eastward somewhat.

  • Otherwise, no major changes.

Overview:

  • Tropical Storm Nicholas made landfall along the central Texas coast late last night and is expected to quickly weaken to a tropical depression as it moves along coastal Texas. The system is projected to move into Southwest Louisiana on Wednesday and then remain stalled over Southwest Louisiana through Thursday.

Confidence:

  • We are confident that this storm will bring heavy rainfall and flooding to portions of the area. We have less confidence in the specific locations which will see the heaviest rainfall in excess of 10 inches and the most significant flooding issues.

Impacts:

Rainfall/Flooding:

  • Rainfall of 6 to 10 inches is currently forecast with pockets of locally higher 20+ inches possible, especially along and south of the I-10/I-12 corridor.

  • The timing for the heaviest rainfall will be tonight (9p-6a) and again Wednesday late afternoon and night across the entire region.

  • Several areas could experience flash flooding with life-threatening flash flooding possible in areas that receive the most rain.

  • Lingering debris from Ida and already saturated ground will act to inhibit the ability for rainwater to drain properly

  • As water drains into area rivers, minor river flooding will be possible.

Storm Surge:

  • Coastal Flood Advisories are now in effect for coastal areas outside of the protected levee systems through Thursday morning. Elevated tides are likely, especially tonight and Wednesday during the high tide cycle.

  • 1 to 2 ft. of inundation will be possible along immediate coastal areas of Louisiana to the west of the Mississippi River and Coastal Mississippi. 

  • Expect low-lying, coastal roads to be flooded and a few may become impassable.

Tornado:

  • A few tornadoes will be possible in the storm’s rain bands on today. Tornadoes in these situations are typically short-lived, but they move very quickly.

  • The highest tornado threat will generally be west of I-55.

The attached briefing highlights the threats associated with this system.

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