Tropical Updates

SuperUser Account

Hurricane Ida Update - 5pm CDT

Here is an update concerning Hurricane Ida.

Changes from the last update:

  • The track has nudged slightly eastward, resulting in slightly higher storm surge totals in Lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas

Overview:

  • Hurricane Ida will continue moving across the Gulf of Mexico with continued strengthening expected  
  • Final preparations should be rushed to completion today as tropical-storm-force conditions are possible along the coast beginning as early as tonight and spreading inland early Sunday morning.

Confidence:
 

  • There is high confidence with the forecast track and intensity of this system; moderate confidence with timing.

Impacts:

This is a very dangerous storm and will bring life-threatening impacts.

Winds

 

  • Major hurricane-force winds (>110mph) will be possible for portions of our area, including Metro New Orleans, Metro Baton Rouge and all coastal Louisiana parishes
  • Hurricane-force winds (>74mph) will be possible for our entire area and are likely across southeast Louisiana.
  • Elsewhere, tropical storm-force winds (>39mph) are likely.

Storm Surge

  • Significant and life-threatening storm surge is expected with peak inundation levels possibly reaching the following heights:
  • 10-15ft of inundation from Morgan City of Mouth of the Mississippi River
  • 7-11ft of inundation from Mouth of the MS River to Ocean Springs
  • 4-7ft of inundation Ocean Springs to the Alabama border
  • 5-8ft of inundation Lake Pontchartrain
  • 4-6ft of inundation Lake Maurepas

Rainfall/Inland Flooding

  • A large area of 10-15" is expected with a swath of 15-20" near the center of the track
  • Localized amounts in excess of 20" are possible
  • The heaviest rainfall is expected Sunday and Monday.

Tornadoes

  • There is a threat of weak/short-lived tornadoes across our entire forecast area.

The attached briefing highlights the threats associated with this system.

Additional Information and Resources:

NWS New Orleans Website: www.weather.gov/neworleans

NWS New Orleans DSS Website: http://www.weather.gov/lix/embrief

NWS New Orleans Tropical Page: https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=lix

River Gauges and Forecasts: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lix

NWS New Orleans Facebook: www.facebook.com/NWSNewOrleans

NWS New Orleans Twitter: https://twitter.com/NWSNewOrleans

Online Severe Weather Reporting: https://www.weather.gov/lix/submit_storm_report

National Hurricane Center Website: https:///www.nhc.noaa.gov

Next Update and Contact Information:

The next update will be following the 10 PM CDT NHC update, earlier if there are any significant changes.

If you have any questions in the interim or need additional information, please do not hesitate to contact us.  We can be reached by phone at 504-522-7330 or 985-649-0429.  Use extension 4 to speak with a forecaster.  Alternatively, you can reach us by email by replying to this message or sending an email to sr-lix.forecasters@noaa.gov. Both methods will be delivered to the forecasters on shift at the office.

Regards,
Danielle Manning
NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge

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